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Making predictions is always a risky proposition. Given the accelerated nature of change brought on by COVID-19, understanding trends in real-time and forecasting the impacts on the work of place management and small business development can be challenging. However, having some idea as to what to keep an eye out for and where to apply some additional focus represents a valuable pursuit given our time limitations and the volume of work inputs. As such, rather than position this purely as a set of predictions, I would suggest this collection of thoughts represent areas for further consideration, investigation, experimentation, and discussion throughout 2022.
From agriculture to manufacturing, as industry sectors mature, the drive to increase productivity and lower labor costs results in the development and infusion of new technology and automation solutions. As a result, employment migrates to other growing sectors such as technology, service, and retail/hospitality industries. This worked fine in an economy with a fundamentally greater labor supply than demand. However, COVID-19 has greatly accelerated workforce shortages, with particular impacts on the retail, restaurant, and hospitality sectors. To drive this point even further, 4.5 million workers left their jobs in November 2021. Restaurants and hotels represented the largest segment of separations. However, they also logged the biggest decline in openings.
As such, I predict that structural shifts have occurred that are driving an accelerated integration of technologies and business model shifts to diminish the need for labor in more of our Main Street retail, restaurant, and hospitality businesses. National chains are already seeing movement in this area. As consumer acceptance rises, we can expect these shifts to scale and become accessible and adaptable to Main Street businesses.
Starbucks, for example, is partnering with Amazon on automated checkout technology. McDonald's even announced that it has been testing artificial intelligence through automated voice ordering at its drive-through operations in 10 Chicago locations. This is on the heels of installing more automated cooking equipment such as fryers and soda dispensaries.
The future may be closer than we think. Already, many Main Street restaurants are shifting to a counter service model rather than having to rely on waitstaff. Many businesses have also scaled-down menu items to limit cook staff needs and control for supply chain hiccups.
Look for retail and restaurant platforms like Shopify, MenuPad, and Ritual to increasingly bring technology solutions to a scale that better fit the needs of mom-and-pop businesses in everything from QR code dining/shopping, self-checkout, contactless payments, and “Buy Online, Pick-up in Store” (BOPIS).
UBS is estimating that about 80,000 retail stores, which is 9 percent of total stores, will shut across the country by 2026. That assumes e-commerce sales rise to represent 27 percent of total retail sales by then, up from 18 percent today. However, technology integration between e-commerce and bricks-and-mortar will offer new formats for in-person shopping, thus shifting some use and function of space to concepts such as “showrooming” whereby stores carry far less inventory. This showrooming model helps retailers that can’t afford to rent out a huge space to accommodate a full store’s worth of inventory.
I predict that rather than a full migration to showrooming concepts along our Main Streets, we will begin to see a movement toward hybrid formats that take concepts from showrooming and “webrooming” (the act of researching products online and then buying in-store). This will allow mom-and-pop businesses to carry slightly less inventory, decreasing floor space needs, while remaining accessible to traditional shoppers. In addition, this hybrid format will further accelerate more cooperative retail concepts as complementary stores look to co-exist in one space. As I travel across Main Street communities, I continue to see interesting combinations ranging from a barbershop and apparel store combo in Altavista, Virginia, to a bike store and coffee house in Rock Springs, Wyoming.
Research suggests it can take anywhere from 18 to 254 days for a person to form a new habit and an average of 66 days for a new behavior to become automatic. Given the length of COVID, many of us have developed a whole host of new habits, many of which revolve around consumer spending habits.
Looking ahead at opportunities for continued growth in our downtowns and commercial corridors, we should anticipate that retail spending around health and fitness (e.g., sporting goods up 29.9 percent), home improvement, furnishings (e.g., furniture up 28.2 percent), décor, and gardening will continue to grow in 2022.
And while counter to popular belief that apparel was stuck in 2021, the most recent Census data indicates a 51.2 percent increase in apparel spending over 2020. I suspect much of that was in leisure and sporting wear as people migrated their apparel spending from business/office wear to being at home and using their Peloton. As such, I would suggest that the pace dramatically drops as our wardrobes have become more balanced.
Keeping with the new habits theme, consumers also have found acceptance in year-round outdoor dining and even delivery from the local grocery store. One of the largest shifts has been in the growth of BOPIS. In fact, nearly 67 percent of all shoppers used BOPIS during the first six months of 2021, and by 2025, 10 percent of all retail sales will be through this method of shopping. Check out this great infographic covering the BOPIS consumer movement here.
With habits such as delivery and BOPIS remaining sticky and growing in demand, it is only a matter of time before new business endeavors at the local scale—either led by entrepreneurs or Main Street programs—begin to establish cooperative delivery services or a one-stop pick-up location for BOPIS purchases made through downtown or district corridor. And finally, I predict that we will see more growth in food truck hub developments and communal dining “parks” with delivery from participating downtown restaurants, becoming a more permanent fixture to our public gathering areas.
Based on the groundwork research from Robert Putnam’s “Bowling Alone,” we know that civic engagement and participation have been declining for many decades. COVID-19 certainly impacted our work in Main Streets and our grassroots model in principle. Based on a survey of Main Street Program directors, 58 percent reported “some decrease” or a “substantial decrease” in actual volunteer hours served.
I predict we’ll take what we learned about “volunteer efficiencies” during the pandemic to inform how to better both attract, engage, and retain volunteers. Using newer technologies such as Zoom for meetings and touching base have set the stage for making it easier to reach and communicate with volunteers.
We are also getting far more used to “project-based volunteering” in which volunteers are given an activity to complete and then when finished the opportunity to do something else. Project-based volunteering often occurs at the volunteers’ own time and convenience, rather than the expectation of coming to a committee meeting. This has become more widely used in promotions/event planning, but I anticipate migration across the Four Points.
I also think we should anticipate that Main Street organizations will seek to partner with other local organizations that represent areas of engagement on the Four Points in order to leverage capacity and resources. As such, work planning should also evolve into more joint planning efforts, resulting in more holistic work planning for our downtowns and commercial corridors and reflecting the entirety of revitalization activities.
The “Great Business Model Pivot” will continue throughout 2022. According to data from American Express’ Entrepreneurial Spirit Trendex survey, 76 percent of business owners have pivoted or are in the process of pivoting their business model to maintain revenue, and among those that already pivoted, 73 percent expect to pivot again in the next year.
In 2022, look at the primary pivot that is occurring as a result of the accelerated integration of technologies to adjust for workforce and supply chain issues. As place management professionals, one of our greatest strengths is connectivity. Start building your database of resources in these areas as part of your ecosystem-building efforts.
Second, focus on helping your businesses diversify revenue streams beyond walk-in traffic to strengthen and grow the economic base of your district. It’s important to view our downtowns and commercial corridors as layered markets in order to help build revenue resiliency for small businesses. This includes common markets like local markets and tourism, and growing into e-commerce, subscription box services, and even wholesaling. See this previous blog suggesting other growth market areas for small businesses.
Every data point suggests remote work will sustain much of its COVID-related captures as a percent of the overall workforce. This has only been reinforced by the Omicron variant, with further companies delaying return to the office timelines. Beyond the impacts on remote worker migration patterns that are often reviewed and discussed, for place professionals, we should also be thinking about impacts relative to impacts on uses and functions of downtown spaces.
According to the Commercial Real Estate Association, office vacancy rates currently stand at approximately 15 percent nationally. I would argue that while there may be some stability coming to this sector, it does not necessarily translate to people coming back and occupying the space. For example, for a number of businesses, there may be lease obligations not currently showing up in the vacancy numbers. And for office users, many are maintaining their spaces but projecting fewer people due to hybrid remote work options and moving to greater space per person requirements reversing the trend to shrink over the past many years.
As such I predict we will see more commercial movement in repurposing office space to housing or longer-term stay Airbnb managed units. In December 2021, month-long stays at Airbnbs increased by 68 percent, according to the company. These opportunities are best positioned for smaller communities within a two- to three-hour drive time of major metropolitan areas that offer amenities such as co-working spaces, internet connectivity, a pleasant downtown with third spaces, and outdoor recreation access.
Just this past summer, a report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) assessed the rapidly growing market for zero-emission vehicles in the United States and projected that the number of electric vehicles riding the roads would top 26 million by 2030.
Currently, consumers' psyche suggests travels to any destination will largely involve a few quick refueling stops at a highway interchange, limiting opportunities to attract visitors to your community or neighborhood. However, with electric charges taking anywhere from 20 minutes to 8 hours—a drastic increase from the time needed to refuel at a highway gas station--there is a great opportunity to leverage that wait time for shopping, dining, and touring opportunities in close proximity to the charging stations. In other words, the density of activity will be a critical test as to where electric car tourists will make their stops.
Aligned with electric car users are those interested in more sustainable tourism. New research released from Booking.com, containing insights gathered from more than 29,000 travelers across 30 countries, suggests that the pandemic has been the tipping point for travelers to finally commit to their own sustainable journey. The desire for local community experiences is high on the list as almost three quarters (73 percent) want to have authentic experiences that are representative of the local culture when they travel, 84 percent believe increasing cultural understanding and preservation of cultural heritage is crucial and 76 percent want to ensure the economic impact of the industry is spread equally in all levels of society.
One of the big shifts in place management is our focus on structural shifts in the workforce. Workforce constraints and lack of workforce housing have reached a crisis point in the U.S. Unfortunately, there remain very few national policies and programming that will impact these issues in the short term, and greater innovation is needed as to long-term solutions. As such, look for continued experimentation, fail fast activities, and creativity to address this issue such as micro-living units and 3-D printed homes.
I predict one such innovation that will gain traction is tiny house developments, largely as part of near-end downtown infill. This housing option would likely be attractive not only for younger workers at an affordable price but also for remote workers seeking a work-from-anywhere experience near business services and social activities found in our downtowns.
One example is the Cass Community Tiny Home Development, a nonprofit development in Detroit, Michigan, consisting of 25 tiny homes ranging from 250 sq. ft. to 400 sq. ft. The project will also offer a rent-to-own program.
Look for further business opportunities by “small-scale producers” in our downtowns resulting from supply-chain complications. The U.S. Small Business Pulse Survey from 2021 highlights the issue as companies are experiencing the lowest inventory levels in decades and 36 percent indicate serious supplier delays. While there is much talk of reshoring U.S. manufacturing efforts (look at the recent Samsung semiconductor manufacturing announcement in Texas), that is a very long-term play and more likely to occur in highly strategic industries like computer chips, batteries, and pharmaceuticals.
As such I predict two areas of growth for small-scale producers: The first comes from providing unique goods to smaller retail and wholesalers that unlike Walmart and Amazon are not in a position to control their supply chain destinies in keeping inventory on shelves for consumers. The second is as a third-party manufacturer for larger industries needing regional parts providers during this time as supply chain issues persist through 2022.
Without a doubt, the global pandemic has been the greatest accelerator of economic and societal shifts, impacting everything from the way we work, recreate, and engage with each other. Effectively, no part of our lives remains exactly the same as in February 2020. For place managers, these accelerated shifts have meant fundamental changes in our work, from how we work to the issues needing to be addressed, and opportunities to leverage. As we launch into 2022, I look forward to seeing how place professionals and mom-and-pop businesses across the country adjust, experiment, and innovate, once again demonstrating our Main Streets’ profound resiliency in the face of change.
Urban Impact Inc., harnesses strategic investments and collaborative efforts to foster a vibrant and sustainable future, from visionary adaptive reuse ventures to transformative development grants for small businesses and property owners in Birmingham, Alabama's historic 4th Avenue Black Business District.
In the last episode of season two of Main Street Business Insights, tune in as host Matt Wagner breaks down how to understand and synthesize local market data.
Sterling Main Street launched a brick and mortar retail incubator spaces. Executive Director Janna Groharing shares lessons they learned about organization, fundraising, and outreach.
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Glen Ellis, owner of Sycamore Education, Dominion Catalyst Services, and Milady Coffeehouse in Fremont, Nebraska.
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Jaime Courtney, President of Shoalwater Seafood, Derek King, Oyster Farm Director of Shoalwater Seafood, and Shane Thomas, Tribal Council Vice Chair of the Shoalwater Bay Indian Tribe.
Sarah Cole, owner of Abadir’s in Greensboro, Ala., was a 2023 Backing Small Businesses grantee. Abadir’s is a pop-up eatery specializing in seasonal and wholesome baked goods influenced by Egyptian traditions and flavors combined with inspiration from true Southern cuisine.
In this episode of the Main Street Business Insights podcast, Matt sits down with Casey Woods, Executive Director of Emporia Main Street in Emporia, Kansas.
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Nicole Fleetwood and McKinzie Hodges, co-owners of Scratch Made Bakery in Amarillo, Texas.
Tylisya Gober, owner of Barbie Behavior Boutique in Oak Park, Mich., was a 2023 Backing Small Businesses grantee. Barbie Behavior is a women’s clothing boutique specializing in celebrity-inspired attire.
Tiffany Fixter, owner of Brewability in Englewood, Colorado, was a 2023 Backing Small Businesses grantee. Brewability is an inclusive brewery and pizzeria that employs adults with disabilities to brew craft beer.
We’re excited to announce that Main Street America will continue to offer virtual and on-demand small business training in 2024 through an evolved program, the Small Biz Digital Trainers program.
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Tiffany Fixter, owner of Brewability, an inclusive craft brewery and pizzeria that employs adults with disabilities based in Englewood,
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Jennifer Jones, co-owner of Good Times Coal Fired Pizza and Pub in Big Stone Gap, Virginia.
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Bobby Boone, founder and Chief Strategist of &Access. Based in New Orleans, La., &Access creates data-driven and design-centric retail real estate solutions for historically excluded entrepreneurs and under-invested neighborhoods.
New Orleans, Louisiana © Bobby Boone
Tasha Sams, Manager of Education Programs, shares highlights of phase one of the Equitable Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (E3) in Rural Main Streets Program and the biggest takeaways from the workshop experiences.
In this video, learn more about the Williams’ family story, how the business is helping to revive downtown Helena, and the impact they’re having on a national level.
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Janet Hurn, co-founder of Future Ready Consulting in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Cincinnati, Ohio © Janet Hurn
In this episode of Main Street Business Insights, Matt sits down with Derrick Braziel, owner of Pata Roja Taqueria and co-founder of MORTAR, in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Matt Wagner, Ph.D., shares his predictions for the trends impacting small businesses in 2024.
Chief Program Officer Matt Wagner, Ph.D., shares his predictions for the trends impacting small businesses in 2024.
A podcast featuring some of the best advice we heard from entrepreneurs and community leaders across the country.
Our research team shares the results of the Fall 2023 Small Business Survey.
Learn how local entrepreneurs have leveraged the power of a Main Street community to establish, maintain, and grow their ventures.
Learn how this organization is uplifting business owners and preventing displacement.
Charlotte, NC © Pixabay
Small Business Saturday is an important opportunity to show your support for local businesses. We asked business owners across the network what your support means to them.
Laramie, WY © Laramie Main Street Alliance
Meet the latest recipients of the Backing Small Businesses Program from American Express!
Matt sits down with Jamie and Jerry Baker, co-owners and founders of Trendy Teachers, a teaching boutique and educational toy store located in downtown Rome, Georgia.
This holiday season, rally your communities around the small businesses that help make your downtown thrive.
Small Business Saturday is Nov. 25! Check out these five strategies to celebrate shopping small.
Middlesboro Main Street in Middlesboro, Ky., Puerto Rican Cultural Center in Chicago, Ill., and Sugar Creek Business Association in Charlotte, N.C., have each been awarded $100,000 through The Hartford Small Business Accelerator Grant Program in partnership with Main Street America.
Matt sat down with Anette Soto Landeros, co-owner of Casa Azul Coffee and President and CEO of the Fort Worth Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Fort Worth, Texas.
Matt Wagner sat down with Danny Reynolds, president and owner of Stephenson's, an independently owned high-end fashion retailer in downtown Elkhart, Indiana.
Matt Wagner sat down with Harvey Williams, Co-Founder and CEO of Delta Dirt Distillery in Helena, Arkansas.
Learn how the Little Santo Domingo neighborhood of Miami is working with the Truist Foundation to strengthen pathways to small business ownership.
© Allapattah CDC
Get ready to support your small business owners and encourage people to shop small this November!
Matt Wagner sat down with the CEO of Keith McDonald Plumbing in Milledgeville, Ga., Lindsay Goodson McDonald.
Learn how the South Carolina Coordinator Program is uplifting small businesses across the state with their dedicated e-commerce platform.
© Main Street South Carolina
Matt Wagner sat down with The Barbershop Conversation podcast team, co-hosts Kenneth Bentley and Davion Hampton along with executive producer Emory Green Jr., in Goldsboro, Florida.
From a cat cafe to a computer repair shop and museum, check out these innovative small businesses from across the Main Street network.
© Historic Valley Junction
This three-week live, online course will prepare local leaders to more effectively work with small business owners in their districts and create an environment that is supportive of entrepreneurship.
© Notice Pictures
Main Street America has a podcast! Tune into Main Street Business Insights to hear from small business leaders across the country.
Meet the 2023 recipients for the Backing Small Businesses grant program, presented by American Express, to provide financial support to small business owners to address critical needs and make a positive impact in their local communities.
In partnership with Grow with Google, our digital coaches will work with businesses in their home states, with a focus on those that operate in small towns and rural communities.
Congratulations to these innovative Shop Small events from across the Main Street network.
Stockbridge, GA © Stockbridge Main Street
Spencer Main Street's Main Street Micro Grants is injecting key funding into their small business ecosystem.
Spencer, IA © Spencer Main Street
Check out a deep dive into the results of our Spring 2023 Small Business Survey, plus insights to help inform the work of local leaders supporting entrepreneurs on Main Street.
Meet the communities who have been chosen to receive entrepreneurial support from Main Street America and the Kauffman Foundation.
We spoke to Debbie Ho, Executive Director at Chinatown Main Street, to learn about the history of women in Boston Chinatown.
Boston, MA © Kyle Klein
From program budgets to big achievements, here's the latest data on the Main Street Movement in 2023.
Franklin, TN © Brandon Jean
Learn how Downtown Inc and York County Economic Alliance are supporting marginalized small business owners in their community
York, PA © Sully Pinos
Meet Backing Small Businesses grantees Kim and Chris Casteel of Anew Life Prosthetics and Orthotics based in Detroit, Michigan.
Short stories about small business owners from Evart, Michigan.
Evart, MI © Storyville
Matt Wagner looks back at his small business predictions for 2022 and shares predictions for 2023.
Learn about the City of Boston’s efforts to invest in economic equity.
Learn how this West Virginia community redirected façade improvement funds to revive local commercial kitchens.
Matt Wagner wrote an article for the OECD blog on how can small business owners can combine digital tools with the power of place to find sustainable success.
Inspired by a session at the 2022 Main Street Now Conference, Main Street Ottumwa has launched the Business Builder Academy, an entrepreneurship course to help aspiring business owners start their ventures.
Ottumwa, IA © Main Street Ottumwa
Whether you are a seasoned American Express Small Business Saturday Neighborhood Champion or an entrepreneur joining this national movement for the first time, we’ve gathered a roundup of resources to support your “shop local” marketing efforts.
We spoke to three women who were awarded Inclusive Backing grants to learn more about their passions, their businesses, and their advice for other women.
Wixom, MI © Carissa Serylo
From social media scavenger hunts to downtown passports, the Main Street network has used countless innovative ways to encourage their communities to Shop Small®—and had plenty of fun doing it.
Oceanside, CA © Road West Photography
Main Street Franklin is leading the way in showing how women business owners can be a powerful force for change in their communities.
#EquityRising, Old Algiers Main Street Corporation's new job training program, seeks to combat rising cost of living by helping residents train for careers that will allow them to stay in their neighborhood.
Learn how the Small Business Census pilot project explored the demographics of the small businesses that call Main Street districts home.
Colville, WA © Colville Together
We spoke to three Black business owners who were awarded Backing Small Businesses grants from Main Street America and American Express to better understand their challenges, successes, and the kinds of support that have helped them the most.
Camden, AR © Kimberly Moore Davis
Main Street leaders and local development practitioners from around the world participated in this exciting webinar hosted by the OECD.
Learn how Silver City MainStreet is using Story Hours to connect local business owners with the community.
Silver City, NM © Silver City MainStreet
Main Street Skowhegan opened their new Skowhegan Center for Entrepreneurship, a downtown space for co-working, meeting, entrepreneurial support, trainings, and education.
Skowhegan, ME © Kristina Cannon
Main Street America is proud to support the Revitalizing Small and Local Businesses Act
Main Street America's research team shares the results of the 2022 Small Business Survey.
© JENNIFER E. WOLF
Learn about Show of Hands, an entrepreneurial program in multiple Main Street communities.
Wheeling, WV © Wheeling Heritage
Is your Main Street ready for the biggest small business shopping day of the year?
Main Street Charles City organizes their annual 'WonderFall' event, a business decorating contest designed to have some fun with the autumnal season as well as provide a reminder of the importance of curb appeal in attracting the public’s attention.
Charles City, IA © Mark Wicks
Leverage NC, a partnership between North Carolina Main Street and the North Carolina League of Municipalities, hosted a four-part webinar series titled Better Community Planning & Economic Development led by Ed McMahon, Chair Emeritus of Main Street America and a leading national authority on land use policy and economic development.
Main Street Arkansas has brewed a new engaging way for tourists and residents alike to explore local Arkansas commercial districts: the Main Street Arkansas Coffee Trail.
Little Rock, AR © Main Street Arkansas
Matt Wagner explores how Main Streets can navigate workforce concerns in the post-pandemic economy.
We spoke with two Black entrepreneurs in UrbanMain commercial districts: L. May Creations in the Austin neighborhood of Chicago and The Four Way in south Memphis, Tennessee.
Memphis, TN © Four Way
Heart of Biddeford shares the strategies they developed to support Black-owned businesses in their community.
Biddeford, ME © Heart of Biddeford
We heard from organizations across the nation about the incredible impact their markets have had on community engagement, entrepreneur and small business support, and keeping their district vibrant.
The global pandemic gave us all a glimpse of a further dispersed future – a time when you don’t sit in a classroom at school, watch movies in a theater, or even go to the grocery store. Where do Main Streets fit in that model?
Appealing to mobility-challenged shoppers yields benefits beyond the store.
Being the only person in the know can be fun, exhilarating even. Except when you are the one person out of 600+ in a room and you know bad news is coming.
Fritz the dog has made his way into the hearts of the residents of LaBelle, Florida, and helped our Main Street Community find a way to make what we do more noticeable.
Altavista On Track, the local Main Street organization, is working to cultivate and sustain local entrepreneurs with an educational business launch competition, Pop-Up Altavista 2.0.
In Winchester, Virginia, one woman’s vision and commitment to downtown’s revitalization created an innovative community space for the Creative Class.
A business retention and expansion plan, properly implemented, not only helps keep businesses open but possibly even helps them expand.
The first rule of conducting business is “make it simple.” The easier it is to pay for merchandise, get entertainment or obtain a service, the more likely it is that people will take advantage of those options.
Main Street communities across the country are no stranger to seeking creative strategies to solve their most nagging issues – vacant buildings, marketing downtown, bolstering retail to name a few.
To understand the role that immigrant business owners play in Boston’s small business ecosystem, you need only to walk through any Boston Main Streets district.
Façade appearance is a critical aspect of the overall aesthetic appeal and unique character of downtown.
A lot of signs are necessary to make a downtown work well, but not every community knows what a good sign system looks like, or how instrumental it can be to the creation of a successful downtown.
Main Street Iowa, a program of the Iowa Economic Development Authority’s Iowa Downtown Resource Center, created a one-of-a-kind three-year program to provide help for performance venues located in Main Street districts.
